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Home Technical Analisys

Technical analysis answers the essential questions such as the exact levels where market prices change and the time when this will happen, this is something impossible to be predicted with accuracy through the fundamental analysis. Financial markets are rapidly moving and changing in a short time and can not be defined by static concepts and linear relationships. Fundamental indicators provide the most general predictions through which the current market trends can be judged. While technical analysis accepts the dynamic structure of the market, it does not take into account the fundamental values because it accepts that they are calculated in the price, i.e. they are on the graph. Due to the specific nature of financial markets that seek to predict the future, the price changes always precede changes in fundamental conditions.

Technical analysis claims are based on the fact that in reality it is possible to predict future functioning of a certain market entirely by observations on the current and past state of the market without the need to include other external factors in the analysis. Of course, Forex traders should not forget that while technical analysis is universal, each Forex currency pair has its own peculiarities.

There are three basic principles in the technical analysis:

1. Market absorbs everything, i.e. the entire fundamnetal and the price are a consequence and reflection of the driving forces on the market.

2. Movement of prices is subject to trends; at any time periods of increase and decrease in price are alternating, and within one period there is a dominant trend, which is valid until the turn of the market.

3. "History is repeated, the key to understanding the future lies in studying the past." технически анализThe fact that certain graphic prices configurations tend to repeat persistently and many times in different markets and at different times are a result of the manifestation of certain behavioral patterns of human nature.

Dow Theory is assumed as the “Bible” of the Technical analysis. It was created by Charles Dow, then co-owner and editor of the Wall Street Journal. As we know there have been no television, the radio was just invented, so that the print media were the main source of information, and there’s no doubt that Wall Street Journal was the most influential financial media worldwide. Without issuing a separate book, Dow published numerous editorials, which caused an increased interest among speculators. During the 30s of XX century two great technical analysts Robert Rhea and William Hamilton added by themselves and issued "Dow Theory." Dow was interested in the behavior of the market indices of the stock market, which in aggregate quantities gave an overview of the status of a market and price behavior.

Basic tenets of Dow Theory:

1. Everything is calculated in the price, i.e. all economic and statistical data, natural disasters and cataclysms, rumours and any other factor outside the graph. When something unexpected happens, it is reflected immediately and leads to a change in prices.
2. Markets always move in trend; the shortest and precise definition of trend is the following: it is the main prevailing direction of the price movement.
3. There are three types of trends – ascending, descending, and sideways:
- ascending – it is also known as bull trend, up trend, upward trend. Each successive top and each successive bottom are necessary to be higher than the previous ones;технически анализ
- descending – it is also known as bear trend, down trend, and downward. Each successive top and each successive bottom are necessary to be lower than the previous ones;
- sideways – it is also known as flat market, trendless, and inexplicably translated by some colleagues as a horizontal market, which by itself is absurd – there is no clear direction of movement, i.e. there is no a series of higher or lower tops or bottoms.
4. Every major trend incorporates smaller trends, and according to their duration trends are divided into:
- main /primary, major/ trend which lasts for one to three years. Recent experience shows that the main trends in the Forex can be even longer, for example in USD/CAD there was a downtrend for almost 5 years;
- secondary trend which acts as a correction of the primary one in the ratio 1/3, 1/2, to 2/3 which actually are Fibonacci retracements that usually last for several months;
- tertiary /minor, daily deviations/ trend that lasts for a day to several weeks.
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